Global container shipping reliability falls to 29% in August

Global container shipping schedule reliability fell for a third straight month in August. Just 29% of vessels arrived on time, according to data from analyst Xeneta, pushing performance close to pandemic-era lows.

The month-to-month decline from July's 33% was 4 percentage points. The average delay for late vessels also worsened sharply, rising from 4.2 days to 5.1 days. Xeneta said this combination of more frequent and longer delays makes a sustained recovery harder as shippers approach fourth-quarter contracting and the peak season around China's holidays.

Far East-Europe reliability plummets

The Far East-Europe trade was the most severely affected major lane in August. On-time performance collapsed by 10 percentage points to just 6%. The average delay reached 8.2 days, a level Xeneta said had not been seen since the height of the Covid-19 supply-chain disruption in late 2021.

The lane continues to face operational fallout from the Red Sea crisis, including longer diverted routings around Africa. North European port congestion, bigger ships requiring longer berth stays, and weather disruptions added to the strain. Four consecutive typhoons in China left 1.1 million TEUs of cargo held at anchorage across Ningbo, Shanghai and Yantian in one week. Xeneta warned those backlogs are likely to ripple into downstream ports in Europe and North America in the coming weeks.

Carrier performance declines broadly

Ten of the 12 largest carriers saw lower reliability in August, with several hitting 12-month lows. The gap between the highest- and lowest-performing carriers narrowed from 48 percentage points in July to 45 points in August, but primarily because higher-performing carriers lost ground.

Maersk remained the top performer despite its decline. Its Gemini Cooperation partner Hapag-Lloyd fell to 46%, its weakest result since before the alliance began operating in February 2025. Xeneta argued the broad decline means shippers cannot rely on a carrier's overall reputation alone when making tender decisions.

Regional congestion and delays

Schedule reliability deteriorated sharply on several other trades. On the South America East Coast, average delays doubled to 5.4 days. Xeneta attributed part of this to a three-day pilotage strike at Argentinean ports in early August, which increased berth-arrival delays and led some carriers to divert cargo. Despite the decline, this lane remained among Xeneta's three most reliable, behind South America West Coast which recorded 37% on-time performance.

Africa retained its position as the world's most congested container-shipping region in August, with vessels waiting an average of 3.3 days. The Middle East followed at 2.3 days, then Southeast Asia at 1.7 days. Xeneta characterized congestion in Africa and the Middle East as structural, with port-development capacity failing to keep pace with demand.

In Northeast Asia, the average waiting time was 1.3 days, but 16% of vessels were in a holding pattern on an average day. At Ningbo, the average wait declined marginally to 2.8 days from 3 days in July, but the average daily number of ships at anchorage jumped 63%, from 39 to 63 vessels.

Peak season pressures mount

Xeneta said the combination of weak schedule reliability and China's back-to-back Mid-Autumn Festival and Golden Week holidays could put further pressure on capacity. The Mid-Autumn Festival runs September 25-27, followed by Golden Week from October 1-7, creating 10 days of factory closures and concentrating bookings.

Slow steaming, extended anchorage waits, longer berth stays and port omissions also reduce the effective capacity available to shippers. With Far East-Europe reliability at 6% and disruptions also affecting Far East-North America operations, Xeneta said shippers face the prospect of delayed capacity and rising freight rates heading into the fourth quarter.