China-Europe ecommerce air cargo slumps 65% after EU fee
Low-value ecommerce exports from China to the EU fell 65% year-on-year in August, following a new €3-per-item fee, with air cargo flows rapidly shifting to
Chinese low-value and ecommerce exports to the European Union plummeted 65% year on year in August. This sharp decline follows the introduction of a €3-per-item fee, according to Trade and Transport Group managing director Frederic Horst.
The August collapse followed a 54% fall in July. Shipments to the UK also dropped, though less severely, down 13% in August and 5% in July. Data from consultancy Avean confirmed a similar deterioration, recording a 16% overall year-on-year decline in Chinese ecommerce exports for August, its steepest fall yet, driven primarily by a 40% drop in exports to Europe.
Shifting global air cargo flows
The figures highlight a rapid realignment of air cargo flows discussed by executives at this month's EU CBEC Ecommerce Forum in Liège. While China-Europe traffic contracts, other regions show resilience. Avean found exports to Asia Pacific, North and Latin America, the Middle East and South Asia were flat or saw only modest declines.
Africa was a standout, with exports surging 71%, albeit from a small base. The US market is on a different path. Trade and Transport Group data indicates direct low-value shipments to the US have been expanding again since May, though on a 12-month rolling basis they remain at just 65% of their pre-May 2025 level.
Industry adapts to constant disruption
Senior freight forwarding and airline executives described an era of perpetual volatility. Stefan Krikken, head of global airfreight at DSV, noted the past five years have been "completely crazy with Covid and ecommerce and wars and hyperscalers." He argued it shows how agile companies must be.
DHL's EVP of global airfreight, Henk Venema, said the frequency of supply-chain disruption has fundamentally changed. Crises that once occurred roughly every seven years could now happen "every seven months or every seven weeks."
Strategies built on flexibility
In response, forwarders are building strategies around optionality instead of fixed assumptions. Krikken explained DSV now follows capacity and infrastructure, retaining the ability to pivot to smaller regional gateways when needed.
The panel's consensus was that ecommerce remains a major air cargo driver, but trade flows are in constant flux. Asok Kumar, CEO of Morrison Express, summarized the sentiment, stating, It's the same playbook, just with different circumstances being rolled out. Despite the current slowdown, Krikken expressed confidence that ecommerce sellers would get creative and the volume would return.
