Truckload data shows supply-driven market
FreightWaves SONAR data indicates the current truckload market cycle is uniquely supply-driven, with accepted tender volumes near 9,800 and rejection rates
The Accepted SONAR Truckload Volume Index (ASTVI) averaged around 9,800 last week, while the SONAR Truckload Rejection Index (STRI) hovered near 13.5%. According to FreightWaves, these figures, though down from 12-month highs, signal the current truckload market cycle is more supply-driven than any in recent history and still has room to run.
Accepted tender volumes act as a proxy for total truckload demand when rejection rates are low. When the market tightens and rejections rise, accepted volumes show how much freight carriers can cover with existing capacity.
Interpreting volume and rejection signals
A rise in ASTVI alongside a decline in STRI signals capacity growth or improved market efficiency. A clear signal of capacity erosion is when accepted tenders stay flat while rejections rise, as happened in October of both 2024 and 2025. When both indices fall together, it reflects pure demand deterioration, which occurred this past July.
The recent drop in demand pulled rejection rates lower, but this was not a sign of capacity growth. Shippers have turned to intermodal more frequently for its cost savings relative to trucking. Demand-side conditions are more volatile and move the market faster. Supply-side shifts are much slower. This slow pace is why it took over three years to correct the dramatic oversupply that followed the COVID pandemic.
Recent ASTVI levels are close to those seen in 2019. They are lower than most of the past four years, except for last October and November. Rejection rates were below 5% for most of 2019 and below 6% last fall. This indicates roughly the same demand but with more than twice the market tightness.
Capacity constraints and market outlook
While demand deterioration remains possible, the data suggests more room for growth than contraction. Recent Q2 2026 earnings reports show no evidence of fleet growth. Most carriers reported annual declines in active units.
Class 8 truck orders are up this year, but this is from an abysmal 2025 comparison. Both ACT and FTR cite fleet replacement, not growth, as the primary driver. It may still be early to see strong movement. Carriers are emerging from one of the longest and most challenging freight markets since the Great Recession of 2009. Cash reserves are low and debt is high.
This cycle still has a ways to go if the goods economy holds up. Risks skew toward further tightening rather than rapid softening. Demand growth, rail disruptions, intermodal rate increases, and continued government pressure on capacity all point in the same direction. For deeper analysis, our stats page tracks similar market indicators.
The FreightWaves Chart of the Week, from which this analysis is derived, is a selection from SONAR that provides a data point to describe the state of the freight markets. SONAR aggregates data from hundreds of sources. The FreightWaves data science and product teams release new datasets each week. Industry professionals can find related compliance and operational discussions in our fixtures section.
