WTO Goods Barometer Shows Resilient Trade Growth
The WTO's Goods Trade Barometer reading of 102.0 indicates world merchandise trade volume is above trend and gaining momentum, driven by strong demand for
The World Trade Organization's Goods Trade Barometer reading for September 2026 stands at 102.0. This reading is above the baseline value of 100 and slightly higher than the previous reading of 101.7 recorded in June.
Component Indices Show Strength
All but one of the barometer's component indices are above the 100 baseline, indicating broad-based strength. The strongest performance comes from the electronic components index, which registered 104.9. The WTO Secretariat links this strong reading to strong demand for goods that enable artificial intelligence. The export orders index, considered highly predictive of future trade, strengthened to 103.5, pointing to continued growth in the coming months.
International air freight and agricultural raw materials indices also rose firmly above trend, reaching 102.8 and 102.6 respectively. The automotive products index rose slightly above trend to 101.5. The only component below trend is the container shipping index, which dipped to 99.6.
| Component Index | Latest Reading |
|---|---|
| Electronic Components | 104.9 |
| Export Orders | 103.5 |
| International Air Freight | 102.8 |
| Agricultural Raw Materials | 102.6 |
| Automotive Products | 101.5 |
| Container Shipping | 99.6 |
Offsetting Geopolitical Headwinds
The composite reading suggests merchandise trade growth has remained resilient despite raise uncertainty surrounding trade policies and ongoing geopolitical tensions. According to the WTO, the negative impact of the conflict in the Middle East is being partly offset by the strong demand for electronic components and other goods linked to investment in artificial intelligence.
Trade disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are expected to be more fully captured in trade data for the second quarter of 2026 once those figures become available.
WTO Forecasts and Outlook
The WTO Secretariat's most recent Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report, issued on 19 March 2026, provided forecasts for world merchandise trade volume growth. Under a baseline scenario, growth is forecast at 1.9% for 2026. A high-energy-price scenario, reflecting headwinds from the Middle East conflict, forecasts growth of 1.4%.
That report also noted that sustained investment in AI could add 0.5 percentage points to merchandise trade growth. Year-on-year growth in the volume of world merchandise trade remained positive in the first quarter of 2026. An update to this Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report is scheduled for publication in October.
The full Goods Trade Barometer and further methodological details are available on the WTO website.
