VesselBot analysis reveals 31% emissions gap
A new analysis of over 86,000 container voyages in Q2 2026 shows fleet-wide emissions intensity rose 1.5%, masking efficiency gains in most vessel segments
Global container shipping's average emissions intensity increased by 1.5% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2026, reaching 231.7 grams of CO2 equivalent per TEU-kilometer. This overall rise obscures significant efficiency improvements across most vessel size categories and major operational differences between carriers on identical routes.
VesselBot, based in Athens, analyzed 86,389 voyages completed by 6,523 container vessels. The company's chief executive, Constantine Komodromos, warned that fleet-wide and trade-lane averages can mislead. "That is the risk of managing to an average: It can point you in the opposite direction of what is actually happening," Komodromos said.
Fleet average masks segment gains
While the overall Well-to-Wake emissions intensity worsened, five of the six vessel-size categories tracked became more efficient. The single segment of feeder vessels, which conducted 63.9% of all Q2 voyages, became less efficient. Its decline was large enough to pull the fleet-wide average upward.
The analysis revealed the disproportionate role of the largest ships. Neo-Panamax and Very Large Container Ships (VLCS) ran just 7.4% of all voyages but generated 43.5% of total transport work while accounting for only 27.4% of emissions. Feeder and Panamax vessels showed the opposite pattern, operating 80% of voyages, generating 26% of transport work, and producing 45.6% of total emissions.
| Vessel Segment | Voyage Share | Transport Work Share | Emissions Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Neo-Panamax & VLCS | 7.4% | 43.5% | 27.4% |
| Feeder & Panamax | 80% | 26% | 45.6% |
The report is based on AIS-tracked voyage data and vessel-specific digital twin models, measuring emissions at the individual voyage level rather than using carrier-reported averages.
Trade lane efficiency varies widely
The four major fronthaul trades-from China/East Asia to Northern Europe, the Mediterranean, and the North America West Coast, plus Northern Europe to the North America East Coast-accounted for only 1.2% of all Q2 voyages. Yet they generated 21.7% of total quarterly transport work while producing just 12.3% of emissions.
On the specific Northern Europe to North America East Coast trade lane, the quarterly average emissions intensity was 138 grams CO2e per TEU-km. Both Hapag-Lloyd and Mediterranean Shipping Co. (MSC) outperformed this route average, but with markedly different results. Hapag-Lloyd recorded an average of 80.7 grams CO2e per TEU-km, which is 59% below the trade average. MSC posted 117.5 grams, 15% below the average. This created a 31.3% efficiency gap between the two carriers on similar voyage distances and port pairs.
Komodromos emphasized that averages provide limited insight for shippers. "A trade lane average tells a shipper what a route looks like on paper. It does not tell them what happened on their shipment," he said. "Distance alone cannot explain that spread. The difference is in how those voyages were executed."
Utilization drives performance
Vessel utilization emerged as a key predictor of voyage-level emissions intensity. According to the VesselBot report, voyages in the most efficient emissions-intensity category averaged 80% utilization. The least efficient voyages averaged only 31% utilization. The most efficient voyages also carried close to 9,000 TEUs on average.
The analysis highlights how operational decisions on vessel deployment, utilization, and voyage execution are primary drivers of emissions outcomes, creating wide performance gaps even on identical trade lanes.
