U.S. Intermodal Volume Surges 12.6% on Diesel Prices

U.S. intermodal volume surged 12.6% year-over-year in week 41. The Association of American Railroads reported the jump on Wednesday. Overall U.S. rail traffic rose 8.5% for the week, well above the 5.5% average pace of the prior four weeks. North American intermodal climbed 10.8% while total North American rail traffic gained 7.2%. The prior week's intermodal volume increase was around 10% to 11%.

Commodity Shifts and Infrastructure Strain

Rail traffic gains were broad-based. U.S. carload volumes rose 3.5% for the week. Primary metal products led the charge, jumping roughly 25%. Other industrial and consumer goods also posted solid increases.

Stripping out coal and grain, carload growth came in at 4%, indicating strong industrial demand. The motor vehicles segment posted its second consecutive weekly gain, though it remains slightly negative for the full year. JB Hunt reported difficulty attracting enough drayage drivers to move containers to and from intermodal terminals. This signals growing strain on last-mile logistics infrastructure.

Competitive Realignment and Analyst Outlook

Merger discussions and new partnerships are reshaping competition. Following announced Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern merger talks, BNSF and CSX unveiled new interline intermodal partnerships. These moves are pulling some domestic intermodal business away from Norfolk Southern toward CSX. NS executives acknowledged the competitive dynamic is likely to persist. Wall Street analysts expect double-digit earnings-per-share growth at most Class I railroads for the third quarter. Norfolk Southern is expected to see approximately 5.5% EPS growth.

Railroads have targeted rate increases one to two points above the rate of rail inflation. Fuel surcharge programs carry a built-in lag of roughly one to two quarters before fully capturing sustained fuel price spikes. Bill Stephens stated, "High diesel fuel prices and tight truck capacity has shippers diverting freight to rail." He added that the vast majority of carload commodity segments were also in positive territory for the week.

Week 40, 2026 Data Context

Data from the prior week confirms sustained growth trends. U.S. intermodal rail activity increased 10.4% in week 40, 2026, versus 2025. Overall U.S. rail traffic grew 7.2%. North American intermodal volume rose 9.1% and carload volume rose 2.6%. Individual railroad performances varied.

Carload volume excluding coal and grain increased 5.6% in week 40. Chemicals, the second-biggest carload commodity, reached a September high in 2026 and is on track for an annual benchmark. Seventeen of 20 carload commodity groups saw year-over-year increases in September 2026. Motor vehicles and parts volume increased 9.4%. Metallic ores and metals maintained double-digit growth. Coal volume slipped 2% while grain edged up 0.5%.

Diesel prices remain raised, contributing to rail's cost advantage and limiting trucking availability. Rail service has remained dependable despite the high volume increases. Consumer goods expenditures rose 2.7% in August 2026. The AAR identified high diesel prices as a concern that could weaken household spending, noting inflationary pressure is extending from gasoline into food costs. Sustained intermodal growth and this competitive realignment will determine Q3 earnings trajectories for Class I railroads.